内容提要：企业在海外进行直接投资后，会因当地生产满足了当地需求而替代对该国的原有出口，还是会因海外子公司的机械设备和中间产品进口等因素而创造出对该国的更多出口？有关这个问题的结论对近几年迅速从贸易大国和引资大国走向投资大国的中国至关重要。本文采用2003年以来中国对26个主要国家的进出口和直接投资数据进行面板模型分析，结果表明随着近几年“走出去”规模的不断扩大，中国企业的海外投资对出口贸易已产生了明显的促进作用，这说明边际产业战略在现阶段的中国正在被有效实施，而中国企业的对外直接投资即使仅从贸易带动效应出发也应被高度重视和支持鼓励。

关键词：对外直接投资  垄断优势扩张  比较劣势转移  边际产业转移  面板数据模型

Exports Promotion or Exports Substitution?

An Examination of Marginal Industry Expansion Theory in China’s Outward FDI

CHEN Limin, YANG Zhen, HOU Zaiping

Abstract: After firms make direct investment overseas, will the investment substitute former export on account of local production, or will they create more export since foreign subsidiaries import machinery and intermediate goods? This issue is of the utmost importance to today’sChina, which promptly evolved from a country with only large I&Es and inward FDI to a country with also large outward FDI. This paper makes a panel data analysis to 26 countries from 2003 and conclusion is:China’s OFDI has no significant effects to imports, but it obviously promotes exports and trade surplus. This trade creation effect shows that the marginal industry expansion strategy has been carried out in today’sChina, andChina’s OFDI should be paid more attention and be supported more even if we only consider its enhancement to exports.

Key words: outward foreign direct investments, ownership advantage, comparative disadvantage, Marginal Industry Expansion Theory, panel data analysis.

（该论文发表于武汉大学重要期刊《财贸经济》2010年第2期。）